The ability of the term structure of interest rates in forecasting inflation: empirical evidence in Vietnam
Authors: Thanh Ha Nguyen, The Anh Pham,Thi Kim Oanh Thai
Journal of Economics and Development
: JED Special Issue 2021 : 2-12
Publishing year: 4/2021
Purpose - This paper aims to examine what the term structure of interest rates tells us about future inflation
in Vietnam. Besides, the relationship between the term structure of nominal interest rates and real interest
rates is indicated.
Design/Methodology/Approach - This research utilizes the OLS method and Monte Carlo simulation with
monthly data of Vietnam government bond yields, market interbank interest rates, and inflation rates over
2009-2019.
Findings - The ability to predict inflation from the term structure of interest rates is relatively weak at short
horizons but stronger at long horizons. The term structure of nominal interest rates contains no information
about the term structure of real interest rates.
Research limitations/implications - The sample size is comparatively small. Furthermore, the reason for
the discrepancy in the ability to forecast inflation of the term structure of the short- and long-term interest
rates is not clear.
Practical implications - The information about the term structure of interest rates could be used as a reference for monetary policies.
Originality/value - Inflation forecasting, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, term structure.
Paper type Research paper