page loader
The ability of the term structure of interest rates in forecasting inflation: empirical evidence in Vietnam
Authors: Thanh Ha Nguyen, The Anh Pham,Thi Kim Oanh Thai
302    2
Journal of Economics and Development
: JED Special Issue 2021     : 2-12
Publishing year: 4/2021
Purpose - This paper aims to examine what the term structure of interest rates tells us about future inflation in Vietnam. Besides, the relationship between the term structure of nominal interest rates and real interest rates is indicated. Design/Methodology/Approach - This research utilizes the OLS method and Monte Carlo simulation with monthly data of Vietnam government bond yields, market interbank interest rates, and inflation rates over 2009-2019. Findings - The ability to predict inflation from the term structure of interest rates is relatively weak at short horizons but stronger at long horizons. The term structure of nominal interest rates contains no information about the term structure of real interest rates. Research limitations/implications - The sample size is comparatively small. Furthermore, the reason for the discrepancy in the ability to forecast inflation of the term structure of the short- and long-term interest rates is not clear. Practical implications - The information about the term structure of interest rates could be used as a reference for monetary policies. Originality/value - Inflation forecasting, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, term structure. Paper type Research paper
Tendency of sea and island tourism development in the world and experience lessons for VietnamOverall review of reseach on competitiveness of tourism destinationDiscussion on the cruise market , Nghe An IslandThe role of state management in job creation for laborers in Ha TinhDevelopment of marine tourism products in Nghe An islandImprove student self-learning capacity in terms of teacher responsibilityStrategic management syllabusStudy factors influencing employment policy at the local levelDeveloping Vida beer consumption market at Sai Gon - Nghe Tinh Beer Joint Stock CompanyQuality of young civil servants in Nghe An province: Current situation and solutionsManagement of district budget expenditures in Vu Quang district, Ha Tinh province: Current situation and solutionsState management curriculum on economicsCurriculum for Socio-Economic Policy AnalysisBudget management in Nghi Loc district, Nghe An provinceImprove the quality of lecturers of Vinh UniversityState management capacity of civil servants at the commune level in Huong Khe district, Ha Tinh province: Current situation and solutionsA study on competitiveness of sea and island tourism in VietnamResearch the prospects of applying green economy in Nghe AnThe research of relevance among Economic growth, unemployment, externaldebt and national expenditure in Viet NamVietnam, the big market and cross bridges of illegal wildlife trade in Asia: causes and solutionsBusiness environment and labor productivity: The case of the Vietnames firmsIndustry 4.0, Lean Management and organizational support: A case of supply chain operatinonsOperations management and performance: A mediating role of green supply chain management practices in MNCsDoes tradeoff between financial and social indicators matters in environmental consideration: evidence from G7 region Effects of health insurance eligibility exphansion on household consumption in VietNamAssessing Perception And Attitude Of Supporting Of Enterprises Regarding The Continued Application Of E-Tax In Vietnam Linking the North Central tourist area: Current status and policy recommendationsThe effects of corporate social responsibility and practices on the performance of SMEs in Vietnam Policies on public employment services for workers: a case study in Viet NamTHE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE MANAGER’S CHARACTERISTICS AND FINANCIAL OBSTACLES ON INTERNATIONALIZATION AND FIRM PERFORMANCE IN POLANDTechnical Efficiency of Smallholder Banana Production: A case study in VietnamGreen Economic development policy in VietNam in the context of industrial revolution 4.0The infuence of economic and non economic determinants on the sustainable energy consumption: evidence from Vietnam economyRegulating environmental pollution through natural resources and technology innovation : Revisiting the environment Kuznet curve in China through quantile-based ARDL estimationElininating Human poverty: Macroeconomic and social policies for equitable growth in Viet NamDeterminants influencing the linkage between training and using labour force: the case of VietNamThe Impact of Curriculum and Extra-Curriculum Education on Entrepreneurial Intention and Entrepreneurial Behavior of University Students: Evidence in The North Central Region, Vietnam